Investors must remember that Africa is not a country.
Hannah Wanjie Ryder, CEO, Development Reimagined
Even the IMF’s overarchingly negative outlook on what it terms sub-Saharan Africa “buries” their own forecast that four sub-Saharan African countries — Senegal, Democratic Republic of Congo, Rwanda and Niger — will be among the 10 fastest-growing globally in 2023, and on average, their growth will out-pace pre-Covid levels, she notes. “Investors would do well to consider African markets next year, even if they’ve never heard of them before.”
The IMF expects the Middle East and Central Asia region to grow by 3.6% in 2023, sub-Saharan Africa by 3.7%.
Asia will continue to be at the heart of a major reallocation of capital investment.
“Investors will continue to diversify their investments away from China to avoid potential supply chain disruptions caused by a lack of employees and supplies, and government-ordered lockdowns,” writes Lawrence Yeo, CEO of consultancy AsiaBIZ Strategy.
Foreign direct investment (FDI) into China has plummeted since the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic in early 2020, according to fDi Markets figures. The flipside to China’s falling levels of investment is India’s record FDI in 2022. Strong investment inflows and a solid macroeconomic cycle have propelled India to the top positions of the FDI Standouts Watchlist 2023, where it stands out in second place behind Qatar.
“Opportunities remain for Asian countries that offer growth drivers such as a good digital infrastructure and ecosystem, and open market access. It is also important for countries to have strong laws protecting intellectual property, easier credit access and a big pool of consumers who are quick adopters of tech and foreign goods.”
The IMF expects emerging and developing Asia to grow by 4.9% in 2023.
As for the Americas, 2022 has been a record year for mega projects in the US as president Joe Biden’s administration put very generous incentive packages on the table for investors in strategic sectors such electric mobility and semiconductors.
“It’s hard to imagine announcements will continue at the same frenetic pace of 2022. The coming year will be the one where many of the suppliers for these operations will announce a new home,” writes Didi Caldwell, president of site selection consultancy Global Location Strategies.